I attempt the political punditry equivalent of Evel Knievel’s jump over the Snake River. Will I land safely on the other side by successfully predicting presidential election returns for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia? Or will my guesses turn out to be a crash and burn? Does a Nader victory equal an early parachute deployment? Will I ever stop with this lame stuntman metaphor and just get on with it? Sure thing.
I’ve stated previously on several occasions that I think Al Gore will be the next President of the United States. Of course the first time was in the midst of the whole “I’m-Bill- Clinton-have-a-cigar” saga, and though some might think it unfair to count an “Al Gore is the next Big Cheese” guess in the context of impeachment proceedings, I think it’s only right to say that I missed on that one. (Though I continue to believe Clinton’s impeachment should have been sustained, and the lying [insert word or phrase of your choice here] thrown out of office.)
I was also wrong in saying, after the first Bush v. Gore presidential debate, that Al Gore was the next president on the basis of that night’s performance. I still think Gore dominated a frequently comically inept Bush. It’s just that competence isn’t necessarily the voting issue I think it should be. I’ll refrain from telling you what this makes me think of the electorate.
But it won’t stop me from going for strike three in my efforts to predict the next president. It only takes one good swing to hit a home run, and if predicting the outcome of all 50 states plus DC isn’t a potential four-bagger, I don’t know what is.
Note: I’m reserving the right to change my mind on states right up until Election Day, so expect to see me waffle a bit as polls indicate the fickle “Undecideds” have gone and changed their minds again.
Tune in again on Election Night as I’ll be updating the site with returns and tracking my success. Do bear in mind that I don’t think I have a snow ball’s chance in hell of picking correctly on a lot of the toss-up states; this is all just for giggles in case that’s unclear.
| State | Votes | Ty’s Pick | Outcome | Notes |
| Alabama | 9 | Bush | Bush | Bush by, oh, say 20 |
| Alaska |
3 |
Bush | Bush | Bush is Big Oil’s best friend; Big Oil rules Alaska |
| Arizona | 8 | Bush | Bush | Traditionally Republican but a little tighter than normal this time around because McCain is favorite son and Bush is, well, Bush |
| Arkansas | 6 | Bush | Bush | Clinton’s campaigned here for Gore and though I’ve been burned by betting against Bill before, I’m willing to do it again |
| California |
54 |
Gore | Gore | Been solidly Gore for a long time; recent campaigning by Bush a strategic mistake |
| Colorado | 8 | Bush | Bush | Latest shows Bush by 9; probably means a Republican kegger at the Coors plant |
| Connecticut |
8 |
Gore | Gore | Solidly in Gore’s camp |
| Delaware | 3 | Bush | Gore | Bush by 4, right at the margin of error; I wouldn’t put money on this one |
| DC | 3 | Gore | Gore | Satan himself could head the Democratic ticket & still outpoll his Republican challenger in DC |
| Florida | 25 | Gore | Bush | Gore has led in every poll of the past 2 months; latest Zogby 11/3-5 (+/-4) has Gore by 4 |
| Georgia | 13 | Bush | Bush | Bush wins the South; up 16 in latest poll |
| Hawaii | 4 | Gore | Gore | Gore’s got virtually a 2-to-1 edge in the Islands |
| Idaho | 4 | Bush | Bush | Spud state almost 2-to-1 for Bush |
| Illinois | 22 | Gore | Gore | A little tighter than Demos would prefer, but Gore will carry the state anyway |
| Indiana | 12 | Bush | Bush | Hoosier state never prized intellect as a necessary political quality; Sen. Quayle is proof |
| Iowa | 7 | Bush | Gore | Bush by 3 in 11/2 poll by PSI |
| Kansas | 6 | Bush | Bush | Almost 2-to-1 for Bush |
| Kentucky | 8 | Bush | Bush | Bush 51 to 41 in latest poll |
| Louisiana | 9 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 7 to 11 points |
| Maine | 4 | Gore/Bush | Gore 3, Bush 1 | Very tight; Maine 1 of 2 states that split electoral votes; I’m guessing 2 votes each |
| Maryland | 10 | Gore | Gore | Not even close |
| Massachusettes | 12 | Gore | Gore | Long a Democratic stronghold, Gore will have no problems here |
| Michigan | 18 | Gore | Gore | Was tight; Gore lead now above margin of error |
| Minnesota | 10 | Gore | Gore | Traditionally carried by Demos, but Nader potentially a factor; Nader support dropping, Gore moving ahead |
| Mississippi | 7 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 11 |
| Missouri | 11 | Bush | Bush | Bush 49-45 in latest Zogby poll; it’ll be a close one |
| Montana | 3 | Bush | Bush | Free Men unite! Bush by 11 |
| Nebraska | 5 | Bush | Bush | Cornhuskers are Republicans apparently; Bush by 21; Nebraska splits electoral votes; I’m guessing 1 vote to Gore |
| Nevada | 4 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 4 in latest poll, and I’d wager that’s about right |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Gore | Bush | Gore by 3 or 4 points |
| New Jersey | 15 | Gore | Gore | Depending on who’s poll you read, Gore by 6 or Gore by 14; Either way it’s Gore |
| New Mexico | 5 | Gore | Gore | 42-42 in NMSU poll of 9/26-28 (+/-4) & 45-45 in NMSU poll of 11/6 (+/-4); a roll of the dice |
| New York | 33 | Gore | Gore | Battle for NY over long ago; only question concerns Clinton-Lazio senate race |
| North Carolina | 14 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 10 |
| North Dakota | 3 | Bush | Bush | The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush |
| Ohio | 21 | Bush | Bush | Bush leads in all of latest 8 polls; expect about a 4 point win here |
| Oklahoma | 8 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 10 or 11 |
| Oregon | 7 | Bush | Gore | If Nader polls 10 percent Gore goes down in flames; recent Nader slippage has evened things up; it’ll be down to the wire |
| Pennsylvania | 23 | Gore | Gore | Gore polls ahead of Bush in last 6 polls; latest Zogby 10/28-29 (+/-4.5) has 46-43 Gore |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Gore | Gore | Overwhelmingly pro-Gore; unfortunately only 4 electoral college votes |
| South Carolina | 8 | Bush | Bush | Bush plays well in the South, here by 52-39 in the lastest polling |
| South Dakota | 3 | Bush | Bush | The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush |
| Tennesee | 11 | Bush | Bush | Gore will be the first presidential contender to lose his home state since McGovern |
| Texas | 32 | Bush | Bush | Bush will have no such problems |
| Utah | 5 | Bush | Bush | Mormons tend to be Republicans |
| Vermont | 3 | Gore | Gore | Strongly pro-Gore |
| Virginia | 13 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 7 |
| Washington | 11 | Gore | Gore | Latest Zogby shows it a deadheat, but everything prior shows a small to moderate edge for Gore |
| West Virginia | 5 | Bush | Bush | Depending on the polling organization WV is either strongly pro-Bush or a horse race; I think the former |
| Wisconsin | 11 | Gore | Gore | A contested state, but with the exception of 1 Harris poll mid-October, everything comes up Gore |
| Wyoming | 3 | Bush | Bush | Cowboy vote carries cowpoke to victory |
| Ty |
Election |
Ty’s Misses | ||
| Total Bush = | 261 |
271 |
Delaware (3), New Hampshire (4), Iowa (7), Oregon (7), Florida (25) | |
| Total Gore = | 280 |
267 |