Honestly, I wasn’t that far off in 2000. I only missed Bush by 10 and Gore by 13. Not my fault it was the closest election in the history of ever. (Is it?) Commander Botox vs. Idiot-in-Chief.
I’m already on record as saying that I believe John Kerry will be the next President of the United States. I’m also on record as saying that he sure wasn’t my first choice. But seeing as how George W. Bush isn’t even in my top 1000, Kerry will do just fine.
The post debate polling is now starting to roll through and on the heels of it, I think we’ll start to see Kerry pull ahead in most of the relatively evenly divided states. Unless something shakes up the contest in the final couple weeks, I believe Kerry will win handily.
So it’s Hammer time. Let’s break it down.
Tune in again on Election Night as I’ll be updating the site with returns and tracking my success. Do bear in mind that I don’t think I have a snow ball’s chance in hell of picking correctly on a lot of the toss-up states; this is all just for giggles.
| State | Votes | Ty’s Pick | Outcome | Notes |
| Alabama | 9 | Bush | Bush | Bush won in 2000 by 14 |
| Alaska |
3 |
Bush | Bush | Bush won in 2000 by 59% to 28% |
| Arizona | 10 | Bush | Bush | Traditionally Republican but influx of Democrats have tightened things considerably. Bush by 6% in 2000; don’t think the electorate has changed that much. |
| Arkansas | 6 | Bush | Bush | I hereby flip on election eve. |
| California |
55 |
Kerry | Kerry | Even the Terminator can’t make this state go Republican in the presidential |
| Colorado | 9 | Bush 9 | Bush | Bush will win, and state constitutional amendment to split electoral votes will not pass. |
| Connecticut |
7 |
Kerry | Kerry | Gore by 18% in 2000 |
| Delaware | 3 | Kerry | Kerry | My worst pick of 2000: I said Bush in a squeaker. Reality: Gore by 13% |
| DC | 3 | Kerry | Kerry | Yeah, that’s filled in on purpose |
| Florida | 27 | Kerry | Bush | Bush stole it in 2000; may again with Jeb Bush’s help. Four hurricaines have muddled polling of an almost evenly divided electorate. Jeb Bush and cronies may steal; otherwise I think Kerry. |
| Georgia | 15 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 13% in 2000 |
| Hawaii | 4 | Kerry | Kerry | Aloha, Democrats |
| Idaho | 4 | Bush | Bush | Heavily Bush |
| Illinois | 21 | Kerry | Kerry | Gore carried state easily; Kerry will too |
| Indiana | 11 | Bush | Bush | Hoosier state never prized intellect as a necessary political quality; Sen. Quayle is proof |
| Iowa | 7 | Kerry | State has grown more liberal; Gore scored narrow victory in 2000. Not that narrow this time. | |
| Kansas | 6 | Bush | Bush | Almost 2-to-1 for Bush |
| Kentucky | 8 | Bush | Bush | Bush by a lot |
| Louisiana | 9 | Bush | Bush | Closer than one might think, but not that close |
| Maine | 4 | Kerry/Bush | Kerry 4 | Very tight; Maine 1 of 2 states that split electoral votes; I’m guessing 3 to 1 Kerry |
| Maryland | 10 | Kerry | Kerry | Not even close |
| Massachusettes | 12 | Kerry | Kerry | Mass. is even less of a contest than Maryland |
| Michigan | 17 | Kerry | Kerry | Gore 51-46 in 2000; hammered economically during Bush presidency |
| Minnesota | 10 | Kerry | Kerry | Gore 48%, Bush 46%, Nader 5% in 2000; Nader support much lower this time around |
| Mississippi | 6 | Bush | Bush | Bush 58 to 41 in 2000 |
| Missouri | 11 | Bush | Bush | But not a gimmee. Latest polling 49% to 47% Bush. Could go Kerry. |
| Montana | 3 | Bush | Bush | OK, this one’s a gimmee |
| Nebraska | 5 | Bush | Bush | Cornhuskers are Republicans; Bush by a bundle; Nebraska splits electoral votes, but everything goes Bush |
| Nevada | 5 | Kerry | Bush | A state that, like AZ, has seen a liberal influx. Enough to go Kerry? Yes, I think so, but very close call. |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Kerry | Kerry | Will Nader make the difference? Had 3.9% in 2000; much less today. Bush won by 1.3%. |
| New Jersey | 15 | Kerry | Kerry | Not as liberal as New York, but liberal enough |
| New Mexico | 5 | Kerry | Gore by .06% in 2000 with 3.6% to Nader. Will make the difference for Kerry this time around. | |
| New York | 31 | Kerry | Kerry | No chance whatsoever of Republican victory here. As if Repub convention street fights weren’t big enough clue. |
| North Carolina | 15 | Bush | Bush | Edwards makes it a little uncomfortable for the Republicans, but they’ll prevail. |
| North Dakota | 3 | Bush | Bush | The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush |
| Ohio | 20 | Kerry | Bush | Hammered by Bush economy, but otherwise mostly Republican. A true toss-up state, though Kerry need to commit significant resources to keep it so. |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Bush | Bush | Bush by double digits |
| Oregon | 7 | Kerry | Kerry | Called a toss-up state, but isn’t really. Nader carried 5% in 2000; probably won’t make the ballot this time around |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | Kerry | Kerry | Gore by 5% in 2000; look for Kerry by the same in 2004 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Kerry | Kerry | Overwhelmingly pro-Democrat; unfortunately only 4 electoral college votes |
| South Carolina | 8 | Bush | Bush | Does native son Edwards put SC in play? No. |
| South Dakota | 3 | Bush | Bush | The Dakotas heavily pro-Bush |
| Tennesee | 11 | Bush | Bush | If Gore couldn’t win here don’t look for Kerry to succeed |
| Texas | 34 | Bush | Bush | The worst president in modern times will nevertheless carry his home state |
| Utah | 5 | Bush | Bush | Despite a lot of disenchantment with Bush policies, Mormons tend to be Republicans |
| Vermont | 3 | Kerry | Kerry | Dean will deliver |
| Virginia | 13 | Bush | Bush | Bush by 3% or so; much tighter than in 2000 (52% Bush v. 44% Gore) |
| Washington | 11 | Kerry | Kerry | Whole West Coast except Alaska (Big Oil) goes Kerry |
| West Virginia | 5 | Bush | Bush | Bush, but 5% or less |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Kerry | Kerry | Another state where ex-Naderites make a difference |
| Wyoming | 3 | Bush | Bush | Cowboy vote carries cowpoke to victory |
| Ty |
Election |
Ty’s Misses | ||
| Total Bush = | 223 | 274 | Florida (27), Ohio (20), Nevada (5) | |
| Total Kerry = | 315 | 252 |